Thursday, November 29, 2007

My Timing Cannot Be Worse

Last two times out... I run pocket tens into bullets pre-flop and flopped two pair into turned nut flush. Both times, buh bye.

Not much else going on, but needed to fill some space.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

50/50 To Triple Up = -EV

Meh. Riverchasers game at the golf course last night. I swear, those were the slowest bunch of people ever. I mean, how long does it REALLY take to decide whether you are going to call a 4 chip bet on the flop? And for the love of Pete, pause your conversation long enough to realize that it's been your turn to act for 15 seconds. At least make us think that you have looked at your cards. Aaaahhh! They just sucked the life right out of me to the point where I didn't even feel like playing.

Fast forward to the end. AK vs AJo vs JTo to triple up to over 30 BB for the midgame. What could have been. Ten on the flop. Say goodnight, Gracie.

Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving to the U.S. folk, unless you are serving a tofurkey. If so, eh, nevermind.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Four Score And Seven Years Ago It Smelled Like... Victory



The <Not So> Exciting Conclusion

Saturday was the Riverchasers supersatellite to the Borgata ultimate satellite. And it started off well. I was determined to play my usual tight game, but consciously make the effort to ramp up the aggression when it was appropriate. I think I did that.

Although I don't think I saw a flop other than out of the blinds for the first 1/2 hour, level 2 (2/4) began frantically. I picked up 99 in EP and raised 4x BB. Wow, I actually raised in that spot. For the last month, I would have been content to just limp and see a flop with those cards from that position. Score one for me. Unfortunately, not only did the button call, but so did both blinds. Then the flop came all kinds of connected and suited. And a 9. This was going to be a big pot, one way or the other. So when both blinds checked, I bet around the amount of the pot. This chased away the button and SB, but the BB reraised all-in after some consideration. Now I have 30% of my stack already committed, and the raise was another 43 into, what was now, a pot slightly larger than the starting stack. Okay.... if I'm behind, and I mean IF, I'm still getting the right price to try to fill my boat. I wasn't behind (top pair, 3rd kicker, gutshot), and filled up anyway.

Then a few hands later, I raise 3x BB from MP with AT♠. The player immediately to my left, also the current table chip leader who had been catching an obscene number of quality hands and flops, called and we are heads up to the flop. KQ5 rainbow and I continue, but he calls again. Now, I'm trying to figure out what he might have but, being this is a Riverchasers game, the range is pretty wide. The board pairs the 5 and we both take a free river card. A jack. Yahtzee. I bet out a little less than 1/2 the pot, trying to get value from the made straight. And I get min-raised. Now I am completely perplexed. This is a guy who would have popped me back pre-flop with JJ/QQ/KK and would not have called my raise (even in position) with K/Q/J5. AK? KQ? Discretion won out, so I just called. He says, "Sorry man, I got you on the river." and flips... ATo. Did I play this hand poorly? Should I have led out again on the turn? Did he play this hand poorly? Even though I represented strength with both bets, should he have called on the flop with just one overcard and a gutshot? Who am I asking? No one reads this drivel.

Anyway, I miss a couple of draws, the blinds keep escalating, and anytime I have even a marginal hand in LP, there is a raise and a call before it gets around to me. Sigh. So we go to the second break with 7 of the 8 players at the table with between 1.5 and 12 BB left. I have 5.5 BB and am tied for 5th at the table. After the break, we begin 25/50 and, as expected, the endless string of pushing.

In the first hand, I am BB and the micro stack shoves for another 1/2 bet. The SB and I both call with pot odds and, what it turns out is, KQ (mine) vs KJ (his). The board ends up with 5 bricks and the all-in survives with Ace high. Next hand, all fold to my SB and I shove Q6 into the former chip leader who I actually have covered. He says that he doesn't want to go out on this hand and folds Q8o face up. Whew.

Blinds are coming around again quickly, and I see KJ♣ UTG and shove. I get called by a player in LP who has me covered by 2 BB and pocket 7's. Inevitably, as I can't win either side of a race, 77 holds up and IGH somewhere in the 80's out of a field in excess of 200. What, you say? Someone CALLED for almost all of their chips with 77? It was a Riverchaser, of course they did.

Anyway, I''m starting to read a book that is completely dedicated to playing multi table tournaments with a fast structure. So far, if I'm going to follow the recommendations outlined, my outlook on the game is going to have to change. A lot. But I think I know that, which is why I bought it in the first place. It still doesn't make it any easier to do, though. Once I get through it and am able to implement some of the techniques, I'll log what I tried, what seemed to work against who, what didn't seem to work, and what I haven't been able to get myself to do yet. Should be interesting.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Suckout? Or Does It Just Suck?

I am a big fan of Hoy's blog. In fact, his musings are one of my favorite things to look forward to while lurking in the poker blogosphere. However, part of his post today included a rant where the assertions from a probability standpoint were, at best, inconsistent and applied incorrectly. He asked for direct comments, but since I am trying to see actually how long it takes for someone to find this piece of garbage without me basically publishing my profile publically in someone's comments, I'll do the next best thing. And here it is.

You can read the full text and commentary of the hand over at his place, but to summarize, he and another player got it all-in preflop AQ vs. JJ. An ace came on the flop, but JJ rivered a set. Now, his assertion is that the player with jacks sucked out mightily on the river, but it was in no way a resuck since AQ had essentially won the race on the flop and subsequently lost to a two outer on the river.

The problem, as I see it, is saying that AQ won the 52/48 race on the flop, but not taking into account that you just can't equate the overall probability of winning the race with the individual conditional probabilities for each event... flop, turn, and river. Sure, coming back from being a slight dog is much more probabilisitc than hitting your set on the river, but it's an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Even though AQ is 48% to win over JJ after seeing all 5 cards, it DOES need to improve in order to win. And, in fact, AQ will only improve on the flop about 1/3 of the time. Additionally, since JJ will improve to a set about 1/8 of the time, AQ will only be ahead in the race about 30% of the time after the flop. To me, this is a far cry from winning the race ON THE FLOP. Some would argue that catching a card as a 70% dog is sucking out. I don't completely disagree.

In the suck/re-suck paradigm, the re-suck is almost always more unlikely than the original suckout. That does not change the fact that you cannot say that you overcame odds based on seeing all 5 cards using only the first three. Those odds are what they are for a reason, and they take the results of the turn and river more into account than people really like to believe. A third jack will come about 20% of the time. The better hand won the race. The board was just ordered in one of the more unlikely combinations containing both an A (with 3 left in the deck) and a J (with 2 left in the deck).

Does the universe care whether it comes in the door or waits until the last card? Absolutely not. Does it hurt like a bitch that it waited until the river when you would have really preferred to get it over with on the flop if it was coming? You better believe it. In the grand scheme of things, it was not a suckout as a 52/48 coin flip can never be one when both hands are all-in preflop. Emotionally, though, continuing through the tradition of dealing 3, then 1, and a final 1 just feels so much worse when you think you have come from behind after the flop.

You could always deal all 5 cards down, mix them up a bit so you don't know which would have been which, and then flip them all at once. The results will be 52/48 no matter what. But that wouldn't be so good for T.V. now would it?

Just my .02 for no one to read but me.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

It's The Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown

Boy, did I feel like that lovable loser sitting in the pumpkin patch patiently waiting for a spot to make a move that would never come. The Riverchasers freeroll last night at the golf course in Center Square was another experimental, deeper stack event. For a grinder like me, that should be good news. Not.

I lost about 15% of my stack early calling down a couple hands being second best. That caused me to get a little gun shy when similar situations arose, but I was actually best. Then I called a 3x raise out of the SB with two black nines and 2 early position limpers tagged along with pot odds. Flop was a good, but dangerous, K98 with two diamonds. I was first to act and fired about 1/2 the pot which was enough to send the table scurrying. Now I was back over my starting stack. And the cards went absolutely dead.

The only even marginal hands I was picking up were UTG. KQs, Axs, crap that I would have thought about playing from around back, but almost never early on UTG. My button hands were all 52, 42s, T3, Q4 and there were no cheap flops to be seen. Blind me down. Blind me down. Break the table. Final 3 tables.

I get moved to a 9 person table in the cutoff with about 4 BB left at 15/30. I folded 2 or 3 times and then picked up two black eights. After an EP limp, I decide I need to take a stand. SB calls with AQo and the BB and EP fold. So, now I'm racing to more than double up. Flop is K94. I think I see him. Turn pairs the K. Rising out of the pumpkin patch to double up all of the good little patient grinders. River A. I got a rock. And IGH in 26th out of around twice that many.

My game is definitely regressing into weak-tight territory. I only can get out once (or sometimes twice) a week to play these games and hate to waste them going home early. This is a huge leak and I don't know what I'm going to do about it. Anyway, thanks to Griff who, as usual, runs a killer game. Next time out will be Saturday for the super satellite to the Borgata $1000+100 ultimate satellite. I think Riverchasers is giving out 6-8 seats to this bad boy.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Final Tournament - Can You Say AQ?

When last we left, I had overcome a short starting stack to outlast 25 out of 35 runners to reach the quarterly finals of a freeroll company I stumbled upon in my area when I couldn't make the riverchasers game in time one night. Given that I used to hang with the owner, Chuck, during my first two years at one of Penn State's feeder campuses and he runs a really nice game, I'll give his company some pimpage.

Anyway, we started with 3 full tables with the entire prize pool going to 1st place. As opposed to the semis when I started with a miniscule 1000 chips (20 BB), I was pleasantly surprised that this was to be a deep stack event with double the normal stacks (100 BB). Play during the first level was unsurprisingly cautious. IIRC, there was only one player eliminated in the first 20-30 minutes.

I saw a couple of cheap flops with modest starting cards, but needed to fold on the flop not even having a decent draw and multi-player interest. Eventually, I found JJ UTG and decided to limp, expecting a raise from around back. The button and both blinds had been very active and would frequently raise with anything if no one showed any strength. My read on the table was spot on as the button raised 3.5x BB after 2 limpers. The SB folded, but the BB called, so now do I smooth call a well disguised big pair and play the hand out of position hoping that no A, K, or Q hits the flop? When I phrase it that way, hell no. And, no, I didn't play it that way on Saturday either. I reraised the 350 bet to 1100 and both players folded. BB was obviously just trying to hit a flop with a big stack, and the button showed AQ. Wow, a freeroller actually mucked AQ pre-flop to a limp reraise. Nice pot for me.

A little later, it's my turn to pick up AQ, this time in the SB (100/200). The hand picks up 2 limpers from EP, and I decide to just call. I don't want to go nuts with this hand out of position. I'm still just trying to grow my stack gradually. Well, the BB raises to 3x BB and both other limpers bail, but I decide I want to see a flop. A 2 5 rainbow. I try to find out where I am in the hand, and bet out 1200 which is called. Turn brings another A and we both check. When a deuce comes on the river, I figure we are going to chop, both with aces full, but I dutifully bet 1000 anyway. BB calls and says I have a boat. Well, duh, so do I. I flip the AQ and he mucks angrily. What? It seems that he raised with 55, caught a set on the flop and sandbagged the turned boat, only to see it get counterfeited when the board paired the second time.

Cards go dead for quite a while, we lose a table, and are now playing with 2 tables of 6 and blinds are 300/600. I think I have somewhere between 6 and 7K left and get AQo UTG+1. No more limping at this point, so I raise to 1800 and lose everyone but the SB. Now, even though I have only played with this company 3 times at this point, the SB has been at my table during each one of them. He loves his ace-anything, he loves his connectors, and he usually bets out on the flop if he is interested or check-calls with a strong draw. So when he checks the A-rag-rag flop, I shove. I have already committed 25% of my stack to this hand, and pretty much got the flop I wanted. Either he has what I think he has, a semi-strong A, or he missed the flop completely, or he played the hand differently than I have seen him play and he has AK or 2 pair and is slow playing. Ding ding ding. He picked up AK in the SB and gave me a bunch of rope. GG me. Well played, Sal.

All in all, I think I played pretty well and could have competed for the prize if I hadn't run AQ into AK when I really needed to accumulate some chips. I knew I needed to start to get aggressive, especially when were playing 6 handed, so I'm not unhappy with my play there. I think almost anyone would have gone broke in that spot.

Anyway, most likely I won't be hitting that game all that often. They just can't compete with the bigger prizes that RPT offers at their TOC's. But if another timing issue comes up, and I don't want to postpone my night out, I won't hesitate to go back for a night. The structures and nightly prizes are similar, and just one top 14 finish in the quarter gets you into the semis.

Oh, and then I went home and played 2 SNGs on full tilt and finished OOTM in both. In one, I played über tight, and in the other, uncharacteristically aggro. Just to see if there was a difference. Not for me.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

So Many Choices... I Fold. Again. And Again.

Now I usually fold preflop more than just about any poker player alive, save Phil Hellmuth in the first 15 minutes of any tournament. Last night, though, I started barely looking at my hands before throwing them away. For a good reason...

Last week, my wife got home too late for me to make it to the riverchasers freeroll I was planning on playing. So, conveniently, I found another league that happened to be having an event that same night that I could still get to. Long story short, that night I finished just off the final table which awarded the minimum number of points for a single event. However, evidently, as long as you have any points at all, you qualify to play in a satellite type semi-final tournament. The top 14 in points for the quarter get a bye directly to the finals, but the rest of the folks who donked along all quarter only to find themselves a bit short had to show up to play their way in.

Fast forward to last night. I arrived at the venue fully expecting 70 or 80 people to be there, but was quite surprised to only find around 35. Since the final 10 would go through to the finals, I felt pretty comfortable that I had a good shot. Then I found out that your starting stack was going to be based on the total number of points you had recevied. I got 1000. A paltry 20BB to start with. The leaders got 3000. Uphill battle to say the least.

My feeling right away was that I was going to try to see a couple flops real cheap at the first blind level and try to double up early. Otherwise, I would have to try to find a good spot and just push. The very first hand I received two red tens. I just limped, hoping to mine a set, but when a Q came on the flop and two other players seemed very interested in the pot, I let them go. Didn't really find much of anything for the rest of level 1 and finished the level with 825.

Level 2 saw the blinds double to 50/100 and I knew I would probably have to take a stand during the first orbit at that level. I picked up J4o in the BB, checked my option, and saw 744 on the flop. 4 people saw the flop, so there was already 400 in the pot. After the SB checked, I shoved for my last 725 which was called by a big stack who flipped 56 for the oesd. A turned 3 was a disaster, but my night was not ready to end as a beautiful J came on the river to fill my boat.

Not long after that, blinds were at 100/200 and I was in MP sitting on 1600 chips. UTG limped as he almost always did with ATC. Next player then went all-in for 100 more. I look down at 77. Now, there is already 800 in the pot with a player who is going to be BB next hand for 2/3 of his stack. He could literally be playing any 2 high cards, any A, connectors, the range is pretty broad, so I come over the top for all 1600. Unfortunately, the BB felt he was priced in (??) and he called. So my 77 was up against QT (shorty) and KJ (BB) . I needed to dodge like half the deck. The flop brought a ten and the turn was a Q, so the shorty now has two pair, and the other guy sends me home with an A, K, J, or 9. I would have been ecstatic to just win the side pot and stay alive, but the river was a 7. Yes a 7, and I scoop.

I started the night with only 20BB against players who had upwards of 60 and now I had practically quadrupled up with half the field already eliminated. At this point, my table tightened considerably. With blinds at 200/400, it was just too costly to speculate when there was no need to do better than just survive 6 or 7 more eliminations. I paid a few blinds, and then got another BB special. K7o. And for some reason there were 2 others in the pot, including the shorty at our table. Just before the flop came out, a player was eliminated at the other table and were are down to 11. Oh yeah, the flop was KK4. I really hoped that an A would come as I was in a perfect spot to stack the bubble boy. I didn't think that he would have called pre-flop without an A, or perhaps a small pair. There was nothing I could do about the small pair scenario; he wasn't going to lose any more chips if that was what he had. But the A... I checked. As did they. Turn and river were blanks and we checked it down and I picked up another 1400 for my stack.

That was the only hand I played during the last 2 blind levels. I had enough chips to survive, and I knew these people couldn't get it into their heads that survival was the key, not winning. The final player went out around 5 minutes later and the tournament was stopped as everyone was awarded their seat. This Saturday, 3 tables, $500 winner takes all. They've never had someone in their final tournament before who had played so few events. I guess this record is mine forever, at 1 event. You can tie me, but 0 events played will never even get you into the semis. I have absolutely no expectations for the finals, but I just hope to be able to play my best game. Whatever that is.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

FFL 2007 - That's A Wrap

Despite putting up my high score for the season in Week 9, my opponent got back to .500 thanks to 296 yds and 3 TDs from Adrian Peterson, securing himself the weekly high score. I was only down 5 going into MNF, and got a big push from the Steelers DST, but 110 yds and 2 TDs for Santonio Holmes sealed the deal. 1-8 for the season and officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Not that it mattered. It looks like LJ is going to be on the shelf for a bit, so even if had won, my slim shot at winning out looks even more improbable than it would have been. Interesting stat... I have outscored the luckbox sitting at the top our standings 5 weeks out of 9, yet he is 6 games ahead of me in the standings. Figure that one out. The only thing I have left to play for is the 10% of the prize pool reserved for highest single game score of the season, currently 129. Oh, that one was against me too. I know, WAAAH!

Monday, November 5, 2007

PSU vs. Purdue

My wife came through in a big way...

For our anniversary this year (#9), she scored 2 tickets to the Purdue game, a room in a B&B less than a mile from the center of town, and arranged child/pet care for the weekend. Damn, I married well.

By the time we managed to get everyone to where they needed to be on Friday, it was almost 7 PM. Even with 2 stops (one for a quick dinner), we still managed to do the @200 mile trip in under 4 hours. Game was scheduled for noon on Saturday and we were just plain beat by the time we unpacked, so we just got a good night's sleep instead of trying to hit one of the bars.

On Saturday morning, we made the walk down University Drive toward College Avenue at around 9:00 and just kind of drifted around trying to see what had changed since the last time we were there. It would have been easier to count the number of things that hadn't. Yikes! The original plan was to catch the loop from town up to the stadium, but since they didn't seem to be running yet, we just ambled casually up the hill from McLanhan's.

There are a couple of tailgates that I can usually find, and this was no exception. We made it to the front of the overnight RV lot on the far side of the stadium just before 10:30 and hooked up with some old friends. The beer was cold and the venison on the grill was real fresh, so by the time we were ready to make our way inside, I was feeling pretty happy.

My wife had actually never been to a game in Beaver stadium, so she was a little disappointed that, although we made it before the opening kickoff, she missed the band's pre-game show. Anyway, game got started poorly with the Chicken Makers taking the opening kick back for 6 but, in the end, the good guys came out on top. After a couple more refreshments back at the tailgate, we made the loooong walk back and just chilled for an hour before dinner.

We actually wanted to eat at the Tavern, but a 90 minute wait for a table was just unacceptable. Instead, we ended up at the Gingerbread Man, and were not happy about it. If you're ever in State College and are hungry at the G-Man, stick to the bar menu. Don't go near the dinner entrees. Let's just say that al dente is not good when the pasta started out frozen. The potato soup was pretty darn tasty though.

After dinner we walked around the corner to my buddy Rockey's place, The Brewery. It was still pretty early and there were only a couple dozen people there, so we were able to grab a table and just take it easy for a bit. My wife decided to stick with her usual Smirnoff Ice while I opted for Woodchuck Cider out of the mason jars. At about 9:30, the band did a sound check, and I foresaw some ominous time ahead. The lead guitar had some effect that was at best tinny, and, usually, just downright painful to listen to. And the front man had moved like a chicken. I kid you not.

Just after that debacle finished, a group of 5 from the tailgate came in and it was obvious that they hadn't treated themselves to any down time. Thankfully, the bar was starting to fill up around then, so our little group wasn't really any louder than anyone else. Until the band started. Bad. Real bad. It was a shame too; the set list was pretty decent... Police, Ramones, STP, Bush, Velvet Revolver, Foo Fighters... they just mangled them. About halfway through the first set, my wife asked me to go get her something tasty but strong. Easy request at the Brewery... Uncle Rockey's Stupid Juice. It starts out with about 1/3 of the glass filled with whatever the jar of cherries was soaking in. Some combination of vodka and grain. Mostly grain.

Needless to say, she made it for about another hour before she was ready to call it a night. I don't think I have ever called it a night in State College before midnight before, but this WAS a weekend for our anniversary, so I thought it best NOT to put her in a cab and follow later. Just a hunch I had. We got back around midnight and crashed. Between the early night and daylight savings ending that night we were able to be up by 8 AM and still catch 9 hours. Try doing THAT with 2 small children and 5 dogs.

Anyway, we packed up and drove into town to do a little shopping, mostly for gifts, and were able to get on the road for home before 9:30. By the time we retrieved the dogs from the boarding kennel, it was after 2 when we finally got home. I found an email waiting for me indicating that a bunch of guys were getting together for the Eagles game that night, including a friend that was up from Virginia for the weekend. Done and done. Except that is also an accurate description of the Eagles play last night and season outlook. They might only win one more game this entire season. A bad ending to a good weekend.